by Malcolm Fabiyi & Adeleke Otunuga
Summary of Results: A comprehensive electoral survey was conducted from
December 19th to February 7th. Respondents were sampled using Facebook
and electronic mail. Survey Platform was Survey MonkeyTM. A detailed
overview of the survey methodology is described at the end of this
paper. The survey questionnaire comprised of 42 questions covering the
following topics: (a) demographic questions covering gender, educational
attainment, income, region of origin, place of domicile and location at
which voter’s registration was done (b) 2011 electoral choices (c) 2015
voting intent (d) respondents’ political views and (e) motivating
factors for the choice of Presidential candidate.The survey completion period was intentionally delayed, and opened on December 19, 2014 after both major political parties – the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) had announced their Vice Presidential candidate selections. This was done to eliminate any potential bias that could result from the impact that uncertainties about the choice of Vice Presidential candidates would have on respondents’ choice of President.
A critical challenge that an online-based poll offers is the possibility that results can be skewed based on an over-representation of respondents from certain regions. We controlled for this by analyzing the results on a regional basis based on where respondents registered for their voter cards.
Given that the survey allowed us to establish where respondents would be voting, it was possible to develop a detailed profile of voting behavior by region. This allowed us to develop insights into the likely scenarios that will evolve by region, and also enabled us to ensure that a high response in certain parts of the country did not unduly skew the predicted outcomes. Our ability to evaluate voter behavior on a regional basis also allowed us to evaluate the potential impact that low voter turnout or outright vote cancellation in the North Eastern part of the country might have on electoral outcomes. All analyses relevant to the elections were carried out only with respondents that were domiciled in Nigeria and had also indicated that they would be voting in the 2015 elections.
Projected Outcomes
Muhammadu Buhari is on track to win the 2015 Presidential elections with about 21.5 million total votes (see Figure 1), while Goodluck Jonathan will obtain about 18.5 million votes. The combined tally for the two candidates will average about 40 million votes. We assumed that the voter turnout would be about 58.1%, which is the average of the voter turnout percentages obtained in the last 4 elections held in the 4th republic (53.7% in 2011, 57.5% in 2007, 69.1% in 2003 and 52.3% in 1999).
Based on the survey results, we predict that Goodluck Jonathan will win the South East (65%) and South South (71%) geo-political zones, while Muhammadu Buhari will win in the North East (53%), North West (59%), North Central (57%) and South West (75%).
Given the possibility that the lingering Boko Haram crisis in the North East might prevent elections from holding in the states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (BAY), we explored the impact that the exclusion of these states would have on electoral outcomes. Our analysis suggests that the complete exclusion of the BAY states from the electoral tally will still result in a victory for Muhammadu Buhari. In the event that voting will not be able to hold in the BAY states (Borno, Adamawa, Yobe), the total expected votes from the North East will reduce from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million votes, and the projected national tally will be 20.1 million votes for Muhammadu Buhari versus about 17.2 million votes for Goodluck Jonathan. In either scenario, Buhari will likely win the presidential elections with about 54% of the total votes cast.
As we earlier indicated, the responses were analyzed based on the region of domicile of the respondents. Without this critical filter, a margin of victory of 62% would have been predicted for Muhammadu Buhari based on the raw data. We reiterate that by analyzing the data based on region of domicile, we were able to better ensure that the potential overrepresentation of certain regions in the respondents’ population did not skew the overall results. It is our view that some of the spot polling data that have provided outsized margins of victory for either of the major candidates, might benefit from filters to ensure that the sample population which the surveys are based on is representative of the regional (or state by state) composition of the country.
The factors that underline why Buhari will likely win
Our analysis suggests that the real story of the 2015 elections will not be so much about the scale of the likely victory in the presidential elections by Buhari, but about Goodluck Jonathan’s catastrophic loss of the 2011 coalition that propelled him to office.
The most crippling statistic for Goodluck Jonathan is that 47% of the respondents who voted for him in 2011 have indicated they will be voting for the opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 elections (see Figure 2). In contrast, Muhammadu Buhari will retain a staggering 96% of those who voted for him in 2011 (Figure 3), and further build on his voter tally by taking on the 47% of voters who supported Jonathan in the 2011 elections but have elected to defect to Buhari in the 2015 polls. The disaffection with Jonathan is deep and pervasive. Although 74% of all respondents indicated that they voted for Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, only 36% of respondents either strongly approved or approved of the job that he is doing as president (Figure 4).
When the reasons for candidates preferences are analyzed, the (anti)corruption stance of the candidate, is the primary driver of voter behavior (see Figure 5). This is despite the fact that corruption only ranked 5th amongst the key issues of concern to Nigerians (see Figure 6) – behind issues such as security, economic growth, jobs creation and power. It is not clear to us whether the issue of corruption was conflated by respondents to be an all-encompassing issue that affects other key areas of voter concern. This would be the case if respondents believed that the security challenges and the inability of the Nigerian military to effectively contain the Boko Haram crisis are linked with corruption. Similar sentiments that might blame lax economic growth on corruption and embezzlement of funds, could also potentially explain why corruption is taking on a central role in this electoral cycle. While the underpinning factors that have made corruption the primary driver of the 2015 elections are not very clear, the fact is that majority of voters (42%) are making their choice for president based on the corruption standing of the candidates, with a larger number of them (38% of all voters) selecting Muhammadu Buhari as the clear anti-corruption champion compared to 4% for Jonathan.
In trying to understand the factors responsible for Muhammadu Buhari’s surge in acceptability and favorability, there are two critical demographic insights worth considering and these have to do with religion and gender. While Muhammadu Buhari narrowly leads Jonathan amongst women voters (54% vs 46% - see Figure 7), he holds a dominant 2 to 1 lead amongst male voters (see Figure 7).
In a clear reversal of the 2011 polling results, Muhammadu Buhari also leads Jonathan amongst Christian voters (54% vs 46% for Jonathan – see Figure 8), while he maintains a 72% advantage over Jonathan amongst Muslim respondents (86% vs 14% - see Figure 8). The staggering reversal of fortunes for Jonathan will be better appreciated when the fact is considered that in 2011, he (Jonathan) won 85.5% of the Christian vote and 50% of the Muslim vote.
The survey results clearly demonstrate the remarkable erosion of Jonathan’s support base amongst Christian voters, and the massive decline in his strong showing amongst Muslim voters in 2011. The remarkable turnaround in the fortunes of Mr. Buhari among Christian voters can probably be best explained by the dampening role that Osinbajo’s choice as the Vice Presidential pick and the perceived support that Osinbajo’s candidacy has from Pastor Adeboye, has made on Jonathan’s erstwhile strong standing amongst Christian voters. While this religious vote swing is real, we wish to point out that when we posed the question regarding the impact that the choice of Vice Presidential candidate had on their voting preference, respondents indicated that it was not a strong factor in their decision making (see Figure 5).
When we analyzed the preference data based on the age of respondents, Goodluck Jonathan leads (63%) amongst voters under 24 years of age, while Muhammadu Buhari leads amongst voters 25 years and older (Figure 9) – underscoring the broadness of his appeal.
While the story might seem generally positive for Buhari and the APC, the survey results however reveal some deep issues that voters have with both candidates and parties. Nigerians do not view Buhari or the APC as being particularly strong on the economy and in job creation – which are amongst the top priorities of voters (see Figures 5 and 6). Should our results be validated and Buhari and the APC triumph at the polls, they can expect a short honey moon period, as voters will very quickly begin to expect to see results in the key areas of major concern - ending the Boko Haram insurgency, driving economic growth, tackling unemployment & job creation, and solving the lingering power crisis. Buhari’s mandate – if he wins, will not be to wage a war on corruption to the exclusion of the actual issues that matter to voters. He and his party, will have to deliver on other cogent issues.
Key observations by the numbers
21.8% of respondents are unemployed, 28.8% are self-employed, while 49.4% indicated that they currently work for an employer
23% of respondents believe Nigerians are united
68% of Nigerians believe that Tribalism is the reason for the lack of unity, while 57% believe that the lack of unity is driven by religious differences
87% of respondents believe Nigeria should remain as a united country
18% of respondents registered to vote in their places of origin
60% believe the 2015 elections will be free and fair
64% of respondents disapprove of the work Jonathan is doing as President
88.2% of respondents have already received their voter cards
33% of respondents earn less than N30,000 per month
Disclosure:
The 2015 National Electoral Poll was not commissioned by any political party, or vested organizations and/or individuals in the Nigerian political process. Dr Malcolm Fabiyi holds a BSc (First class) degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Lagos, an MBA from the University of Chicago and a PhD in Chemical Engineering from Cambridge University. Dr Adeleke Otunuga holds Bachelors (Philosophy) and Masters Degree (IRPM) from the University of Lagos, and a PhD in Management (Organizational Leadership) from the University of Phoenix. Both authors have previously written public articles in support of Muhammadu Buhari’s candidacy. However, this paper was compiled based exclusively on data received from respondents obtained by random sampling. We commit to providing raw data values from this survey to genuine academically motivated requests.
Any inquiries regarding the survey should be directed to claypolconsult@gmail.com.